Asset Valuation Projects
Market Value of Utility Scale Battery Storage.
An IPP and project developer retained TCR to evaluate the commercial viability and economic benefits of a large battery storage project within the WECC footprint. Using ENELYTIX, TCA performed a multi-regional two settlement simulation of security constrained unit commitment and economic dispatch to model day-ahead and real-time markets for energy and ancillary services in WECC. TCR used the results of that simulation to prepare a comprehensive evaluation of stacked benefits accruing to the proposed storage project across markets and market products. 2018.
Market Value of Generating Unit Property.
A municipality retained TCR to review the real estate property assessment of a nuclear unit located within its boundaries. The review is an input to the municipality’s claim for damages from the appraiser who had prepared the assessment on the grounds of glaring deficiencies in that appraisal. February 2018 .
Merchant Pumped Hydro Storage.
A merchant developer of pumped hydro facilities retained TCR to evaluate the market value and environmental benefits of several proposed merchant pumped hydro storage projects. The proposed projects repurpose mountain top strip mine locations into pumped storage facilities. TCR is providing the development team engineering economic analyses, financial analyses and regulatory expertise. June 2018.
Quantitative Evaluation of Long-Term Contracts for Clean Energy Generation Projects, Massachusetts.
In March 2017, to comply with Section 83D of the Massachusetts Green Communities Act, Massachusetts electric distribution companies (“EDCs’) issued a Request for Proposals for long term contracts for 9,450 gigawatt hours of clean energy supply from onshore resources. The EDCs retained TCR to help them, in cooperation with the Department of Energy Resources (“DOER”) and an Independent Evaluator, to evaluate the quantitative costs and benefits of over 50 distinct Proposals and Portfolios of those distinct Proposals. The costs and benefits TCR evaluated included annual costs of energy and renewable energy certificates (RECs”) from the proposals as well as the value of reductions in annual carbon emissions, market prices of energy and market prices of RECs. TCR developed projections of each proposal’s costs and benefits over a 25 year evaluation period based upon the bids from each Proposal and the outputs of TCR’s simulation modeling of each proposal Case. TCR used ENELYTIX®, a cloud-based market modeling tool licensed from affiliate NEG, to simulate the hourly operation of the New England electric energy market under a Base Case and under each Proposal Case. The Base Case provided a “counterfactual” projection of energy and capacity costs, as well as carbon emissions, under a future in which the EDCs did not acquire for 9,450 gigawatt hours of clean energy. TCR used a Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventory model to calculate the impact of each proposal on the annual carbon emissions attributable to Massachusetts. The EDCs filed the TCR report as Exhibit JU-6 in Massachusetts DPU Docket 18-64. June 2017.
Quantitative Evaluation of Long-Term Contracts for Clean Energy Generation Projects, Massachusetts.
In June 2017, to comply with Section 83C of the Massachusetts Green Communities Act, Massachusetts electric distribution companies (“EDCs’) issued a Request for Proposals for long term contracts for up to 800 mega-watts (MW) of Offshore Wind Energy Generation. The EDCs retained TCR to help them, in cooperation with the Department of Energy Resources (“DOER”) and an Independent Evaluator, to evaluate the quantitative costs and benefits of over 20 distinct Proposals and Portfolios of those distinct Proposals. The costs and benefits TCR evaluated included annual costs of energy and renewable energy certificates (RECs) from the proposals as well as the value of reductions in annual carbon emissions, market prices of energy and market prices of RECs. TCR developed projections of each proposal’s costs and benefits over a 25 year evaluation period based upon the bids from each Proposal and the outputs of TCR’s simulation modeling of each proposal Case. TCR used ENELYTIX®, a cloud-based market modeling tool licensed from affiliate NEG, to simulate the hourly operation of the New England electric energy market under a Base Case and under each Proposal Case. The Base Case provided a “counterfactual” projection of energy and capacity costs, as well as carbon emissions, under a future in which the EDCs did not acquire 800 MW of offshore wind. TCR used a Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventory model to calculate the impact of each proposal on the annual carbon emissions attributable to Massachusetts. The EDCs filed the TCR report as Exhibit JU-5 in Massachusetts DPU Docket 18-76. January 2018.
Quantitative Evaluation of Long-Term Contracts for Clean Energy Generation Projects, Rhode Island.
Narragansett Electric Company d/b/a National Grid expects to issue an RFP in August 2017 for the supply of energy as well as Renewable Energy Certificates (“RECs”) under long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with up to 400 megawatts (“MW”) of newly developed renewable energy projects. National Grid retained TCR to help it evaluate the quantitative costs and benefits of the proposals it receives. The costs and benefits include annual costs of energy and RECs from the proposals as well as the value of reductions in annual market prices of energy and of RECs. TCR will develop projections of each proposal’s costs and benefits over a long-term evaluation period based upon the bids from each Proposal and the outputs of TCR’s simulation modeling of each proposal Case. TCR will use ENELYTIX®, a cloud-based market modeling tool licensed from affiliate NEG, to simulate the hourly operation of the New England electric energy market under a Base Case and under each Proposal Case. The Base Case will provide a “counterfactual” projection of energy and REC costs, as well as carbon emissions, under a future in which National Grid does not acquire supply from up to 400 MW of renewable energy resources. April 2018 .
Valuation of Distributed Energy Resources (DER) for Major Electric Distribution Company (EDC).
An EDC serving a major city in the U.S. Midwest retained TCR to provide expert consulting services regarding the value of DER to its distribution system. TCR, working with Quanta Technology, developed a framework for determining the value of DER to the distribution system owner by location and time period. The framework measures this value in terms of the marginal contribution of a DER to the EDC’s ability to avoid capital and operating expenses associated with upgrades to its distribution system, increasing its DER hosting capacity, managing voltages and reducing distribution system losses. The framework enables the EDC to determine the value of an incremental kW or kVar of DER at each node of its distribution system in each hour of the year over a specified planning horizon. September 2017.
Reserve procurement strategies to support variable renewable generation.
The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) retained TCR to help them evaluate a range of alternative reserve procurement strategies including the use of a storage technology for integrating variable renewable generation. TCR is using ENELYTIX®, a cloud-based market modeling tool licensed from affiliate NEG, to simulate the operation of the TVA system under each reserve procurement strategy. Fall 2016.
Impact of power plant retirements in PJM Interconnection and Midcontinent ISO.
A market participant retained TCR to assess the impacts of proposed retirements of Midwest power plants on prices and air emissions in PJM Interconnection and Midcontinent ISO markets. TCR is using ENELYTIX®, a cloud-based market modeling tool licensed from affiliate NEG, to develop projections of prices and air emissions in those markets for scenarios without, and with, the proposed retirements. April 2017.
Avoided Energy Supply Cost in New England: 2015 Report Update (AESC 2015 Update).
In August 2015, the efficiency program administrators in Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont retained TCR to prepare a limited update of AESC 2015. The report updates the AESC 2015 projections for changes in six key input assumptions - electric generating capacity retirements, additions and Forward Capacity Market (FCM) results, a new ISO-NE zone, crude oil / fuel oil prices and natural gas commodity costs. The updated electric input assumptions include 9,450 GWh/year of clean power and 1,600 MW of offshore wind power required to comply with the Massachusetts Energy Diversity Act of July 2016. The AESC 2015 Update reports updated Avoided Electricity Costs, Avoided Natural Gas Costs and (Avoided Costs of Petroleum and Other Fuels for Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont for the period 2017 through 2047. August 2016 to December 2016.
Asset Valuations of prospective merchant transmission projects in North America.
TCR is working with a developer of merchant transmission projects to identify and analyze opportunities for new projects throughout North America. TCR is providing initial research and screening of opportunities in specific regions as well as detailed follow on analyses of specific opportunities which appear most promising. January 2016.
Asset Valuations of U.S. Merchant Power Plants.
A major hedge fund has retained TCR for multiple assignments to prepare asset valuations of merchant power plants that are possible acquisitions. TCR provides forecasts of revenues the candidate merchant plant might receive from providing capacity, energy and ancillary services in the relevant wholesale markets by forecasting the prices in those wholesale markets as well as the candidate merchant plant’s potential level of participation in those markets. TCR is using ENELYTIX®, a cloud-based market modeling tool licensed from affiliate NEG, to develop projections of prices in those wholesale markets as well as the candidate merchant plant’s potential level of participation in those markets. January 2013 .
Asset Valuations of Targeted Upgrades to High Voltage Transmission Lines.
A private investor who specializes in upgrades to existing transmission lines at key locations has retained TCR to provide engineering economic analyses of potential upgrades, to estimate their impact on improving market operations and to forecast the revenues from those market operation improvements. 2012 .
Avoided Energy Supply Cost in New England: 2015 Report (AESC 2015 and addendum).
The efficiency program administrators in New England retained TCR to develop projections through 2030 of marginal energy supply costs that retail customers will avoid due to reductions in the use of electricity, natural gas, and other fuels resulting from energy efficiency programs offered by electric utilities, natural gas utilities and independent efficiency agencies. TCR used ENELYTIX®, a cloud-based market modeling tool licensed from affiliate NEG, to develop projections of the marginal electric energy and capacity costs that reductions in the use of electricity would avoid. AESC 2015 provides estimates of avoided costs the program administrators use to support their internal decision-making and regulatory filings for energy efficiency program cost-effectiveness analyses. TCR developed AESC 2015 through a major stakeholder process. November 2014 to April 2015.
Simulation of Mexico’s Proposed Restructured Wholesale Electric Market.
For a major industrial client in Mexico, under subcontract to Longwood Energy Group, TCR simulated the operation of Mexico’s proposed restructured electric market in order to provide projections of wholesale electricity prices and generator revenues, and to help the client understand the implications of a restructured electricity market for generating assets in Mexico. TCR used ENELYTIX®, a cloud-based market modeling tool licensed from affiliate NEG, to develop the projections of wholesale electricity prices and generator revenues. February 2015 to November 2015.
Energy cost and price impacts of active demand response in New England.
Efficiency program administrators in several New England states retained TCR to estimate the avoided energy costs and energy price impacts of potential active demand response programs. TCR used ENELYTIX®, a cloud-based market modeling tool licensed from affiliate NEG, to project the wholesale energy and capacity prices under scenarios without the offshore wind facility and with the facility. September 2015 to March 2016.
Asset valuation of Stonegate Power, LLC.
TCR provided systems and financial analytic support to the developer of an 800 MW combined cycle facility in New Jersey. The TCR asset valuation support was instrumental in receipt of initial project funding. TCR also worked with the client on both power purchase and natural gas contracting for the facility as well as on identification and securing of funding required for full design and permitting. March 2013 to April 2015.
Modeling Value of Flexible Generation in a power system with High Renewable Penetration.
The Brattle Group analyzed the system costs and investment-level metrics of meeting the need for Flexible Generation in a power system with High Renewable Penetration (ERCOT) by comparing alternative portfolios of generation additions varying by the level of highly flexible generating units utilizing reciprocating engines. TCR, as a sub-contractor to Brattle, supported the simulation modelling of those portfolios using ENELYTIX®, a cloud-based market modeling tool licensed from affiliate NEG. 2015.
Electric energy and capacity price suppression impacts of offshore wind (Long Island).
TCR prepared a study of the impact of 250 MW of off-shore wind off the coast of Long Island on electric rates on Long Island. The study, commissioned by the New York Energy Policy Institute (NYEPI) of Stony Brook University, calculated the net rate impact, i.e., the incremental revenue requirements associated with the offshore wind facility less the reduction in wholesale energy and capacity prices in the Long Island Zone of the NYISO market as a result of the wind generation. TCR used ENELYTIX®, a cloud-based market modeling tool licensed from affiliate NEG, to project the wholesale energy and capacity prices under scenarios without the offshore wind facility and with the facility. October to November 2014.
Electric energy and capacity price suppression impacts of offshore wind (New England).
With the cooperation of DeepWater Wind, the developer of the Block Island offshore wind project, TCR undertook an academic exercise to estimate the economic and environmental impacts of incorporating offshore wind assets into the New England electric power system. TCR used ENELYTIX®, a cloud-based market modeling tool licensed from affiliate NEG, to evaluate the impact of a range of offshore wind installations, from 100 MW to 1200 MW, located off the southeast New England coast. The analysis provides a detailed evaluation of the locational marginal price (LMP) impact of increasing MW of offshore wind for a single study year, 2015. In addition, the analysis tracks and presents the reductions in air emissions that result from incorporation of increased quantities of offshore wind in the New England system. January 2014 to September 2014.